Nov. 18--The Indiana Association of Cities and Towns is scheduled to bring as many as 1,500 visitors to the Grand Wayne Convention Center in September 2010 for a statewide meeting that could pump $1.5 million into the local economy.

But that won't happen if the adjacent 250-room Courtyard by Marriott isn't ready by then -- a possibility that openly worries even officials who have become adept at explaining and adjusting to the constantly evolving fortunes of the city's controversial $125 million Harrison Square project.

"First they were going to break ground (on the hotel) in October. Then it was November. Nobody has said anything to us. The longer we don't see something happening, the more apprehensive I get," said Grand Wayne General Manager Bob Lister. "We have another five conventions pending, but they won't commit until they know the hotel will be ready. With today's economy, that worries me."

The hotel isn't officially behind schedule yet because the city's Redevelopment Commission earlier this year agreed to allow Merrillville-based White Lodging Services to delay groundbreaking from Nov. 1 to Dec. 30. White has secured the necessary permits, but with company officials still searching for a construction loan, even they say there's no guarantee the two-month extension will be enough.

"It is disconcerting," said city Deputy Director of Redevelopment Greg Leatherman, conceding that timely construction of the hotel -- unlike the also-delayed condominium and retail component -- is crucial to Harrison Square's economic health.

Lister alluded to one of the reasons. Hoping to attract larger events such as the Cities and Towns meeting, the Grand Wayne doubled in size in 2005 at a cost of $42 million. But those hoped-for conventioneers will go elsewhere if downtown Fort Wayne lacks a sufficient number of upscale hotel rooms. Without the hotel, in other words, the return on that $42 million investment could be considerably less than expected -- just like my latest 401(k) statement.

The second reason is more complex, but equally important. Because taxes generated by the hotel have already been included in plans to repay some of the city's Harrison Square expenses, any significant construction delay could force the city to seek the needed cash elsewhere -- further complicating an already tight budget.

Because of a10-year tax abatement, the hotel is scheduled to generate just $3,274 in property taxes toward debt payment in 2011, Leatherman said. But that figure would increase to more than $337,000 by 2017. The hotel would also generate income taxes, sales taxes and room taxes, which help pay for the Grand Wayne Center.

Deno Yiankes, president and CEO for investments for White Lodging, blamed "unparalleled market conditions" for the lack of financing, but said the company is negotiating with a potential lender and could have an agreement within two weeks.

"There's a chance (groundbreaking) will come in the first quarter (of 2009), but we'd still be OK. We're pretty optimistic. The demand for hotel rooms in Fort Wayne year-to-date is still OK, but that may soften."

As things stand now, the hotel is supposed to open by May 30, 2010 -- two months later than originally planned, Leatherman said, because White doesn't want to open in inclement weather. That's still plenty early to accommodate the Cities and Towns visitors, if the schedule holds. But where Harrison Square is concerned, schedules seem increasingly flexible -- at least where the city's private partners are concerned.

As originally planned, Harrison Square's 62 condos were supposed to be substantially complete by June. But when just 10 of the 62 units sold, Atlanta-based Barry Real Estate Cos. enlarged the condos but reduced the number to 30, hoping that would attract new buyers and help secure financing.

The move might have resulted in even fewer buyers, at least in the short term, since people who had bought condos under the old design had to recommit under the new proposal. Most have done so, Hardball's Project Development manager Jim Irwin said, "and we have received a lot of new interest. But, given the economy, they have the luxury of time."

Maybe so, but it's a luxury no one should be taking for granted -- least of all the people charged with protecting the interests of Fort Wayne taxpayers. Harrison Square's parking garage and baseball stadium, both mostly publicly funded, are coming along nicely. The hotel and condos aren't, in part because the increased perceived risk has cast doubt on the potential rewards.

That illustrates the crucial difference between the public and private sector -- if anybody in Washington cares to think about it before they bail out another chunk of the economy.

This column is the commentary of the writer and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of The News-Sentinel. E-mail Kevin Leininger at kleininger@news-sentinel.com, or call him at 461-8355.

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